Reason for 2 Straight Division Losses in 2006-2007: Not Bullpen!

All I've heard around the state of Georgia in the past two years (2006-2007) is "the Braves just don't have it anymore." When I hear this, I'm always quick to ask them their reason for making such a statement. Their answer is always a monotonous "They just don't have the bullpen anymore." Sometimes they state the obvious, "Their starting pitching depth is no where close to where it was during the winning days." And then, they pull the overused phrase, "You know, the Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux days."

Now, let's take a step further.

Undoubtedly, the Braves, arguably, had the best starting rotation in the history of baseball when their front 3 men were John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux. Oh, and we can't forget Steve Avery, although, he wasn't quite as consistent as the others.

And yes, they had a pretty saavy closer in Mark Wholers for those 3-4 years. Then, the macon-native John Rocker came along and was pretty much lights out for the most part.

We must remember, though, a starting pitcher and a closer can only do so much in assuring a win, or attempting to assure a win. Moreover, middle relievers (7th and 8th inning guys) play a major part in a team's win. For the most part, a starting pitcher will go 6-7 innings. Then, a middle reliever (or sometimes a few middle relievers) come in and pitch the 7-8 innings. And if they do a good job, the closer will come in and "put the nail on the coffin."

So, we're beginning to see that it's definitely a pitching-team effort to give a club a chance to win a ballgame. The starting pitcher can only do his job, and that's give the team a solid 6-7 innings. From there, he sits in the dugout with his arm wrapped and a towel on his head only able to anxiously anticipate the hopeful success of the middle relievers and the closer.

You're probably wondering, "Luke, where are you going with this."

Well folks, I've done some research and as the lawyer says, "I'm about to prove this case." So, think hard and listen up.

I'm sure you've heard it a thousand times since the Braves broke the streak of 14 straight division titles back in 2006. The Eeyore-type fans have been negatively ranting, "The reason the Braves ruined the streak is because their bullpen stunk!"

And of course you'll hear them say, "They had to rely solely on Smoltz and Hudson. They had too many young arms with no experience in winning."

Both statements prove to be legitimate reasons behind the 2 straight division losses.

So, in essence, they are saying during the 14 years the Braves won their division, they must have had great pitching in general. Am I right?

Well, we know the Braves had a great starting rotation in Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, and at times Avery. But, how exactly did their bullpen do during those years.

This is where my research comes into play. Mind you, I sat here and calculated all of this up.

*The first year the Braves won the division was in the year of 1991. They went on to lose in the World Series to the Twins 4-3. A pretty strong series. What was their bullpen's ERA? A cold 4.42.

*In 1995, the Braves not only won the divison, but went on to the World Series and won while beating the Indians 4-2. What was their bullpen's ERA? An even colder 5.53.

*In 1999, the Braves easily won their division and went on to the World Series and lost to the Yankees, getting swept 4-0. But going to the World Series is not an easy feat. What was their bullpen's ERA in this 103-59 season? A bone-chilling 9.80.

*In 2001-2005, the Braves, of course, won their division with relative ease. What was their averaged bullpen's ERA during these 5 seasons? A cold 5.26.

*Just for your interest, I'll throw you this stat: The averaged ERA for the Braves' closers during the years I've mentioned thus far is an ice cold 6.26.

*In 2006, the Braves, for the first time in 14 consecutive seasons, finished in the 3rd place in their division. What was their bullpen's ERA? A 7.69.

*In 2007, the Braves, again, lost their division finishing 3rd place. What was their bullpen's ERA? A 4.57.

*So, the Braves' Bullpen's ERA in their division losing 2006 and 2007 seasons was lower than the 1999 Braves' World Series team's ERA?

*How about this fact-- the Braves' bullpen's ERA in their division losing 2007 season was lower than 9 of the 14 division winning seasons!

Before I make my final statements and "prove" my case, I want to make sure the readers realize that I understand that many of the losses in the past 2 years of the Braves' failure to win their division has been because of and unreliable bullpen and a young, unreliable starting rotation.

Many are worried about this season's Braves' chances in winning the division because of the slow start with the bullpen. You know, with Blaine Boyer's 2 blown games, Soriano being on the DL, etc.

Well, according to the stats I've given you regarding the bullpen's ERA during the miraculous 14 straight division run, a team can still be successful with a shakey bullpen as long as you have a deep lineup and starting rotation, which the Braves did have during the 14 seasons.

So, what about our chances this year?

Folks, the Atlanta Braves have arguably the best starting rotation in the Major Leagues with Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine. Oh, and let's just allow Jair Jurrjens be the Braves' reliable 12-14 win Steve Avery. Or Mike Hampton if he returns. And why can't we just allow Hudson to be our Maddux. Afterall, Hudson does have that similar 2-seam Fastball. Are you sensing some familiarity?

With the fiesty Mike Gonzalez coming back, and Soriano soon return off the DL, our bullpen might look better than you think. Don't forget about the aussie Moylan.

The Braves roster in the last 2 years doesn't even remotely compare to this year's talented roster-- and that goes for the starting rotation, the bullpen, and the lineup.

And if the Braves can win 14 straight divisions with an excellent starting rotation, a pretty solid lineup, and a questionable bullpen (averaged ERA over those 14 division wins: 5.31), then the 2008 Braves can sure win the 2008 National League Eastern Division with a just as excellent starting rotation, a very solid lineup, and a pretty solid bullpen (Soriano, Moylan, and Gonzalez).

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Tonight:

John Smoltz and the Atlanta Braves face John Lannan and the Washington Nationals at 1:05pm on Sports South.